The United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the only international framework where all countries in the world have a voice for discussing climate change and arrange binding and non-binding actions for combating it. Yes, surprising as it may sound, it is the only one!
In this context, UN Climate Change Conferences are great “opportunity windows” for detailed negotiations and “evolving” agreements, though some of them have been quite ineffective so far. Last one in Copenhagen 2012 did not work out too well. So here we go again, the upcoming 2015 UN Climate Change Conference will be held in Paris from November 30th to December 11th, and its main objective is to reach a meaningful (and feaseable) agreement on the timetable and actions to keep a global temperature rise under 2 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This is quite something. This agreement would allow a single, worldwide-shared and effective regime for holding global warming within what scientists say are safe limits. According to scientists (Inter-governmental Panel of Climate Change- IPCC), “business as usual” emissions (coming from industries, transport, etc.) will suffer a rise of at least four degrees in the world by 2100 and this will have drastic and negative environmental, social, economic and political global effects. The current challenge therefore is to keep temperature rise below 2 °C or 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, which will require ambitious reductions in emissions within the next 30 years. It is ambitious but doable.
Are we going to succeed? After 20 years of conferences, will Paris be the spot where a universal and legally binding agreement on climate change could be finally signed by 196 countries? This is the question at play.
In Paris world leaders are expected to sign the mentioned agreement to limit greenhouse gas emissions from 2020. By now, more than 150 national plans for curbing greenhouse gas emissions have been so far arranged for the conference. However, it remains unclear how these national plans will be promoted and monitored. Hopefully, too many cooks will not spoil the broth. But, just in case, there are other “cooks” outside the UN kitchen. For instance, further bilateral agreements are being reached by countries responsible for 75 per cent of carbon emissions such as China and India in order to reduce their emissions. Last Friday, India promised to cut their emissions and to source 40% of its electricity from renewables by 2030. On Monday, Nov. 2nd 2015, President of France (François Hollande) and President of China (Xi Jinping) agreed to monitor any climate change deal agreed in Paris. Besides China, the USA will be a very important actor in Paris for two main reasons. First, Obama will end his presidential mandate in January 2017 and Paris could give him the opportunity to impact at global level. Second, Obama counts with a stronger position due to 2013 Climate Action Plan that made possible to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. After all, he won the Nobel Peace prize.
Global problems require global solutions. Unified global action is required to re-conduct irresponsible development and consumerism and to avoid environmental degradation and global warming. This is not only a scientific statement but a political and moral one. Relevant people support this way of thinking such as Joseph Stiglitz, Pope Francis, Stephen Hawking, Asad Rehman, Yeb Saño, Kumi Naidoo, Dalai Lama, Richard Branson, Sting, Leonardo di Caprio, Bono and many more.
Finally, let’s not open the champagne quite yet. Paris agreement on climate change is not a done deal.
